The 2024 pension adjustment has come to an end, with an approximate 3% increase in the average pension for retired elderly people, estimating an average increase of about 100 yuan per person.

This year marks the 20th consecutive increase in pensions for enterprise retirees, and also the 9th year of unified adjustment of pensions for retirees from government agencies and enterprises. Based on the trend of pension adjustments this year, it is likely that the pensions for retired elderly people will continue to increase in 2025.

The increase in pensions is regulated by the Social Insurance Law, which stipulates that adjustments to the basic pension level for retirees should be made in a timely manner according to the growth of the average social wage and the rise in prices, as well as considering the bearing capacity of the pension insurance fund.

Factors contributing to the growth of the average social wage.

At the end of July, Shanghai announced that the full-range average social wage for 2023 was 12,307 yuan, which only increased by 1.1% compared to 12,183 yuan in 2022. Many people might worry about the growth of the average social wage, but in reality, there is no need for concern. The growth of the average social wage is based on the overall national increase, not just one or two places.

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In contrast, the growth rate of the full-range average social wage in Beijing for 2023 is 4.1%, and the same is true for Shandong Province. The situation in Shanghai alone does not represent all regions in the country.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' data on residents' income for the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of our country's residents reached 20,733 yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The wage income of residents in the first half of the year reached 11,980 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.

Due to the trend of population aging in our country, the number of working-age population is gradually decreasing, so the growth rate of the average wage level of the working-age population may be faster. Therefore, looking at the trend of the growth of the average social wage, it implies that there is no problem with the continued adjustment of pensions in 2025.Factors of Price Increase.

The modest increase in pension for retirees in 2024 is partly due to the slow rise in prices. The annual price increase level (Consumer Price Index) for the whole year of 2023 was only 0.2%, and the price increase level in the first half of 2024 was also 0.2%. However, with the economic recovery, the growth in July 2024 has risen to 0.5%. Overall, it is expected that the price increase will exceed that of the previous year.

Upon further reflection, even with last year's level of price increase, pensions still increased by 3%. Therefore, there should be no problem with the continued growth of pensions in 2025.

The Sustainability of the Pension Insurance Fund.

Some people may be concerned about the sustainability of our pension insurance fund. For instance, the 14th Five-Year Plan clearly states the implementation of a gradual delay in retirement age and an increase in the minimum number of years required to receive a pension. In fact, this is a long-term planning measure to alleviate the expenditure pressure of the pension insurance fund and a strategy to enhance its sustainability. It is actually beneficial for ensuring the long-term stable growth of retired elderly people.

According to the public announcement information released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in 2022, the total income of the basic pension insurance fund for employees was 6,332.4 billion yuan, with expenditures of 5,903.5 billion yuan, resulting in a surplus of about 430 billion yuan for the current period. The pension insurance fund operates on a pay-as-you-go basis, and financial subsidies of about 1.3 trillion yuan have been provided to the employee pension insurance fund by various levels of finance. There are no significant issues with the stable operation of the pension insurance fund.

Furthermore, by the end of 2022, the accumulated surplus of the employee pension insurance fund was 5,689 billion yuan, the national social security fund equity was about 2.5 trillion yuan, and there were also 10% of state-owned enterprise equity.

Thus, the sustainability of the pension insurance fund is unquestionable.

In general, whether pensions increase depends on the growth of average social wages, price inflation, and the ability to bear the burden. Given the current situation, the increase in pensions in 2025 is very optimistic. #Pension Increase# #Top Headline Creation Challenge#